Forecast simulator gauging preference shares among physicians

Situation/ Business Question

A Pharma MNC wanted to assess the opportunity in osteoarthritis market for a purified, high-dose form of Drug X which is currently in Phase II clinical trials for severe localized pain. They wanted to Identify likely attributes and their levels that could affect the preference share of the product over the competing products.


Data analysis and Modeling
  • Ingested relevant survey data with business rules from client
  • Conducted data cleansing, missing value treatment and validation
  • Identified key attributes and their possible levels
  • Modeled the impact of attributes and their levels on preference shares with use of discrete choice and logistic regression method
Simulator Development
  • Developed a simulator for predicting preference shares
  • Calculated importance of each identified attribute and predicted market share

Impacts / Benefits

The payer strategy team as well as the larger brand team had a clear view of the overall access position & favorability of the brand w.r.t. key competitors.

Provided client the required inputs to convert preference shares to market shares and sales for forecasting the required quantity for production.

Business insights helped the client make the right investment decisions on Product Development and Launch, based on various risks and trade offs.